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Howard Raiffa -
The art and science of negotiation (1982)
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Each party tended to view its own chances in court as better than the other side viewed them.
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Most people, even in simple risky situations, don't behave the way the theory of utility would have them behave.
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Disputants often fare poorly when they each act greedily and deceptively.
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After a little reflection, the best strategy becomes clear: bid aggressively up to a maximum cutoff value and then quit.
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The best practical advice then is: try to maximize your expected payoff, which is the sum of all payoffs multiplied by probabilities.
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We act like a zero-sum society, when in reality there is a lot of non zero-sum fat to be skimmed off to everyone's mutual advantage.
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It's easy, of course, for two teams to collude, but somewhat more difficult for twenty-eight-
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Final-offer arbitration should have great appeal for the daring (the risk seekers) who play against the timid (the risk avoiders).
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It is always amazing to see how wide a spectrum of results can be obtained from replicating an identical negotiation with different principal actors; it makes no difference whether there subjects are inexperienced or whether they are senior executives and young presidents of business firms. That is an important lesson to be learned here.
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Advice: don't embarrass your bargaining partner by forcing him or her to make all the concessions.
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The party that negotiates in haste is often at a disadvantage.
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The mediation of internal conflicts can be resolved by linkages with other problems.
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It's worth repeating here, though, because we are talking about mechanisms for resolving conflict and many people don't realize it's impossible to devise a foolproof scheme.
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A final word of advice: don't gloat about how well you have done.
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Game theory, however, deals only with the way in which ultrasmart, all knowing people should behave in competitive situations, and has little to say to Mr. X as he confronts the morass of his problem.
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The need is not for the creation of new analytical techniques specially designed for the negotiation process, but rather for the creative use of analytical thinking that exploits existing techniques.
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A mediator is an impartial outsider who tries to aid the negotiators in their quest to find a compromise agreement.
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The art of compromise centers on the willingness to give up something in order to get something else in return. Successful artists get more than they give up.
Howard Raiffa
Quote of the day
I want it said of me by those who knew me best, that I always plucked a thistle and planted a flower where I thought a flower would grow.
Abraham Lincoln
Howard Raiffa
Born:
1924
Died:
July 8, 2016
(aged 92)
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