The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.

"Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence". New York Times. October 19, 2011. Retrieved on May 15, 2014.

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-b...