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New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look.
Nate Silver
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One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
Nate Silver
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
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Shakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.
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The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
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We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
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We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren't very good at it.
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Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.
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Data-driven predictions can succeed-and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.
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Finding patterns is easy in any kind of data-rich environment; that's what mediocre gamblers do. The key is in determining whether the patterns represent signal or noise
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When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.
Nate Silver
Quote of the day
Nobody ever did anything very foolish except from some strong principle.
William Lamb, 2nd Viscount Melbourne
Nate Silver
Creative Commons
Born:
January 13, 1978
(age 46)
Bio:
Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball and elections. He is the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News.
Known for:
The Best American Infographics 2014 (2014)
Nate Silver on Wikipedia
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