There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient (...), and a random one (...). In this sense, guessing (what I don't know, but what someone else may know) and predicting (what has not taken place yet) are the same thing.


p. 142 - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2007)


There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient (...), and a...

There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient (...), and a...

There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient (...), and a...

There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient (...), and a...