A thoughtful investment process contemplates both probability and payoffs and carefully considers where the consensus - as revealed by a price - may be wrong. Even though there are also some important features that make investing different than, say, a casino or the track, the basic idea is the same: you want the positive expected value on your side

More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places (Updated and Expanded) (ed. Columbia University Press, 2013) - ISBN: 9780231143738