George E. P. Box Quotes

14 Sourced Quotes

Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.

George E. P. Box
Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a "correct" one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena. Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity.

George E. P. Box
One important idea is that science is a means whereby learning is achieved, not by mere theoretical speculation on the one hand, nor by the undirected accumulation of practical facts on the other, but rather by a motivated iteration between theory and practice.

George E. P. Box
Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful.

George E. P. Box
Statistical criteria should (1) be sensitive to change in the specific factors tested, (2) be insensitive to changes, of a magnitude likely to occur in practice, in extraneous factors.

George E. P. Box
A man in daily muddy contact with field experiments could not be expected to have much faith in any direct assumption of independently distributed normal errors.

George E. P. Box
A mechanistic model has the following advantages:
1. It contributes to our scientific understanding of the phenomenon under study.
2. It usually provides a better basis for extrapolation (at least to conditions worthy of further experimental investigation if not through the entire range of all input variables).
3. It tends to be parsimonious (i. e, frugal) in the use of parameters and to provide better estimates of the response

George E. P. Box
For the theory-practice iteration to work, the scientist must be, as it were, mentally ambidextrous; fascinated equally on the one hand by possible meanings, theories, and tentative models to be induced from data and the practical reality of the real world, and on the other with the factual implications deducible from tentative theories, models and hypotheses.

George E. P. Box
The penalty for scientific irrelevance is, of course, that the statistician's work is ignored by the scientific community.

George E. P. Box
We have a large reservoir of engineers (and scientists) with a vast background of engineering know how. They need to learn statistical methods that can tap into the knowledge. Statistics used as a catalyst to engineering creation will, I believe, always result in the fastest and most economical progress…

George E. P. Box
To find out what happens to a system when you interfere with it you have to interfere with it (not just passively observe it).

George E. P. Box
An innovative discussion of building empirical models and the fitting of surfaces to data. Introduces the general philosophy of response surface methodology, and details least squares for response surface work, factorial designs at two levels, fitting second-order models, adequacy of estimation and the use of transformation, occurrence and elucidation of ridge systems, and more. Some results are presented for the first time. Includes real-life exercises, nearly all with solutions.

George E. P. Box
The researcher hoping to break new ground in the theory of experimental design should involve himself in the design of actual experiments. The investigator who hopes to revolutionize decision theory should observe and take part in the making of important decisions.

George E. P. Box
All models are approximations. Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful. However, the approximate nature of the model must always be borne in mind...

George E. P. Box