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The acceleration of the number of traders buying into the market in the inflating bubble captures the oft-quoted observation that bubbles are times when the "greater fool theory" applies.
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One trader's move in the market can be interpreted by another trader as relevant additional information due to the uncertainty he faces.
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The price of a stock is strongly influenced by the behavior of the traders in a nontrivial way.
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Profiting from being in the minority leads to interesting paradoxes. Rather diabolically, if all traders use the same set of rules, they will end up doing the same thing at the same time and cannot therefore be in the minority.
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According to the academic world view that markets are efficient, only the revelation of a dramatic piece of information can cause a crash, yet in reality even the most thorough post-mortem analyses are typically inconclusive as to what this piece of information might have been. For traders and investors, the fear of a crash is a perpetual source of stress, and the onset of the event itself always ruins the lives of some of them.
Didier Sornette
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Nobody ever did anything very foolish except from some strong principle.
William Lamb, 2nd Viscount Melbourne
Didier Sornette
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Born:
June 25, 1957
(age 67)
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