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The old Wall Street saying " buy on rumors, sell on the news," is alive and well, as can be seen from numerous sources in the media and the Internet. Rumors can drive herding behavior strongly.
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Since it is the actions of investors whose buy and sell decisions move prices up and down, any deviation from a random walk has ultimately to be traced back to the behavior of investors.
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The assumption of perfectly rational, maximizing behavior won out until recently in the art of modeling, not because it often reflects reality, but because it was useful.
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The price of a stock is strongly influenced by the behavior of the traders in a nontrivial way.
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The same basic ingredients are found repeatably: fueled by initially well founded economic fundamentals, investors develop a self-fulfilling enthusiasm by an imitative process or crowd behavior that leads to an unsustainable accelerating overvaluation.
Didier Sornette
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Nobody ever did anything very foolish except from some strong principle.
William Lamb, 2nd Viscount Melbourne
Didier Sornette
Creative Commons
Born:
June 25, 1957
(age 67)
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