We often interact with professionals who exercise their judgment with evident confidence, sometimes priding themselves on the power of their intuition. In a world rife with illusions of validity and skill, can we trust them? How do we distinguish the justified confidence of experts from the sincere overconfidence of professionals who do not know they are out of their depth? We can believe an expert who admits uncertainty but cannot take expressions of high confidence at face value. As I first learned on the obstacle field, people come up with coherent stories and confident predictions even when they know little or nothing. Overconfidence arises because people are often blind to their own blindness.


"Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence". New York Times. October 19, 2011. Retrieved on May 15, 2014.

The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-b...

Daniel Kahneman Quotes

We often interact with professionals who exercise their judgment with evident confidence, sometimes priding themselves on the power of their...

We often interact with professionals who exercise their judgment with evident confidence, sometimes priding themselves on the power of their...

We often interact with professionals who exercise their judgment with evident confidence, sometimes priding themselves on the power of their...

We often interact with professionals who exercise their judgment with evident confidence, sometimes priding themselves on the power of their...